How much of an impact will the recent Thai-Cambodian war have had on property values in mid-2025? Let’s make an estimate.
Dr. Sopon Pornchokchai, President, Agency for Real Estate Affairs Co., Ltd. ( www.area.co.th ), a property appraiser, provided the following interesting information:
1. In Thailand, the provinces most affected are those along the Thai-Cambodian border, namely Ubon Ratchathani, Sisaket, Surin, Buriram, Sa Kaeo, Chanthaburi, and Trat (in order from east to west), totaling 7 provinces. If only the districts affected because they are located along the border are included, there are 21 districts, totaling 465,603 houses.
2. However, each district may be affected to varying degrees depending on its location, whether it is far or far from the border. Therefore, the percentage of impact is estimated to be different. Some districts that are particularly close to the border, such as Khlong Yai District, Trat Province, may be affected by approximately 40%, while Kantharalak and Phusing Districts of Sisaket Province and Sangkha District, Surin Province, are estimated to be affected by only 8% of all homes.
3. In summary, out of a total of 465,603 houses, 57,905 were affected and had to be moved out, totaling 12% of all housing units.
4. It is estimated that the price of a house is approximately Baht 1.5 million (USD 45,455), the value of the 57,905 affected houses would be Baht 86.857 billion (USD 2.632 billion)
5. If we assume that the rate of return on a house is 5% per annum of the value (based on the comparative rate of return of the Thai Appraisal & Estate Agents Foundation), and if one has to temporarily move to another place, the cost of finding a house, hotel or other accommodation may also be approximately 5% per annum of the value of one’s house, then the total rate of return is 10% or 0.83% per month of the total value.
6. And with the total value of the house being Baht 86,857 million, if the house has to be moved for 1 month at a rate of return of 0.83%, the loss value should be Baht 724 million (USD 21.94 million). In the case of a delay of 2 or 3 months, the loss value could be as high as Baht 1,448 million (USD 43.88 million) and Baht 2,171 million (USD 65.79 million), respectively.
This doesn’t even include the risk of burglary and the possibility of injury or death, which we have not considered here. No one wants such losses, and war is not a good solution. Even General Chatichai Choonhavan (a former Prime Minister in early 1990’s) once said that in all conflicts, we must use proper political measures not military actions and we had to transform the battlefield into a marketplace for the benefit of all parties.
We must end the war with fairness for all parties as soon as possible.
TAG : 0 0 Google +0 Write : Fri 1 Aug 2025 11:33:59 (AM) See : 1687991 Times
